Rapidly declining costs of truck batteries and fuel cells
The costs of battery and fuel cell systems for zero-emission trucks are primed to decline much faster than expected, boosting prospects for their fast global diffusion and electrification of
Specifically, battery system costs could drop by 64% to 75% and fall below €150 kWh −1 by no later than 2035, whereas fuel cell system costs may exhibit even higher cost reductions but are unlikely to reach €100 kW −1 before the early 2040s.
Fuel-cell trucks use hydrogen produced from natural gas by methane reforming or by electrolysis of pure water. The cost of a fuel-cell truck is anticipated to decrease from the current level of US$256,000–$480,000 to US$150,000–$200,000 by 2030 1, 2, 6.
For hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks, the stock average energy intensity declines from 2015 levels of 10 kg H2/100 km based on existing prototypes to 7.5 kg H2/100 km based on existing projections of hydrogen consumption rates for commercial vehicles in China 27.
This study investigates intangible costs associated with advanced electric and hydrogen-powered trucks, including recharging/refuelling time, cargo capacity limitations, and buyer reluctance towards emerging technologies.
The costs of battery and fuel cell systems for zero-emission trucks are primed to decline much faster than expected, boosting prospects for their fast global diffusion and electrification of
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